Estimation of runoff sediment volume and peak discharge of debris flow based on a stochastic method and effects of drainage basin area, precipitation and geology on them

Yoshiharu ISHIKAWA

Abstract

It is indispensable to have scientific estimates of the runoff sediment volume and the peak discharge of debris flow in streams when considering both active and passive measures against debris flows. The purpose of this study is to propose an estimation method for the design runoff sediment volume from debris flow and the peak discharge of debris flow by means of the probabilistic safety assessment based on about 450data on debris flow throughout Japan listed in a literature. As a result on statistical analysis, there were relatively strong correlations both between the runoff sediment volume and the drainage basin area and between the peak discharge and the drainage basin area, but on the other hand, there were no significant correlation between both of the runoff sediment volume and the peak discharge and both precipitation and geology. An estimation method for the design runoff sediment volume and the design peak discharge via the drainage basin area by the 95% or 99% prediction interval of the data obtained by using the past survey results was proposed.

Key words

debris flow, runoff sediment volume, peak discharge, prediction interval, drainage basin area