Takeru KINOSHITA, Reiko AKIYAMA, Yoshikazu SHIMIZU and Nobutomo OSANAI
Abstract
Upon an outbreak of a natural disaster, specially under the circumstances where
information of weather, sediment disaster as well as premonition of further
disaster frequently changes minute by minute, it is envisaged that decisions
on evacuation and evacuation preparation may be made and most probably be influenced
by the psychological factors. Therefore, this study is intended to construct
a Model for evacuation behaviors upon disasters from psychobehavioral aspects.
The suggested model illustrates the evacuation process by four stages, namely
1) confusion, 2) perception, 3) judgment, and 4) action. A certain score is
set forth for one perception and the scores shall be accumulated as time passes.
Thus, it is assumed if such accumulated scores cross the threshold level, a
certain action will be taken. A score given to each influencing parameter differs
between disaster and normal circumstances. Scores shall be given to the parameter
by chronological analysis under disaster while they shall be added to the parameter
under the normal circumstance. The influencing parameters were set forth following
the results of earlier studies and the threshold level was considered and decided
in conformity with the results of public survey. A public survey was conducted
in the form of a questionnaire at three municipalities in Nagano Prefecture
where Typhoon No.4(man]yi)•No.9(Fitow)hit devastatingly in 2007 to ascertain
applicability of the model that has two threshold levels of evacuation activities
and evacuation preparation activities. As the result of analysis, applicability
of the model has been improved by considering the regional differences as underlying
potentials. Furthermore, the threshold level that covers all the refugees has
been established by optimizing scores by quantification methodŠOŽš(8152). In
addition, it is confirmed that direct evacuation alert announcement through
public address system of the community is much more effective than warnings
of sediment disaster broadcast by TV or Radio.
Key wordsFevacuation behavior, cybernetics model, sediment disaster, multiple
classification analysis, Anan]cho, Saku city, Miyota]cho