The accuracy of short term rain forecast information on the internet
compared with surface pluviometers in the mountain range
Tetsuya KUBOTA and Kyoichi OTSUKI
Abstract
Application of free meteorological information on the internet WWW to landslide
disaster warnings, especially application of short term rain forecasts based on
radar rain gauges, is a solution to appropriate warning and evacuation system.
However, this information doesn't have enough accuracy in some cases. Hence, in
this study, its reliability is examined with observed rain data, taking meteorological
types into account. Eventually, following results are revealed. 1) The stronger
the precipitation is, the less precise the information of short term forecast
is. 2) Meteorological types have considerable effect on the accuracy of the information
of short term forecast. The accuracy tends to reduce with the meteorological type
related to approaching low pressure. Notwithstanding this tendency, it doesn't
reduce in case of typhoon. 3) It is noteworthy that in strong rainfalls the short
term rain forecast tends to give underestimated values.