The large earthquake on October 23, 2004 named Chu]etsu earthquake caused a
number of landslides in the Imokawa basin, Niigata Prefecture. The landslides
resulted in a large amount of unstable debris in the Imokawa River. Because
the Imokawa basin is well]known as a heavy snowfall area, we should study the
method of prediction of snowmelt to prevent the secondary damage by the snowmelt
flood. In this study, the simplified and practical heat balance method was applied
to predict the amount of snowmelt in the Imokawa basin. This method requires
only the simple meteorological forecasting data of weather, temperature and
precipitation and the topographic data of the basin. To test its applicability
for the short]term prediction, daily snowmelt was predicted and compared with
the actual data obtained by the on]site measurement in the Imokawa basin during
the winter in 2004/05. The results show that the proposed method can provide
the short]term forecasting of snowmelt which is precise enough to prevent the
disasters induced by snowmelt.